THE MONEY TREE CALLED CONGRESS
How Do We Eliminate a $37,000,000,000,000 Debt And Why The 1% Solution Will Fail.
Every year we are besieged with the dreck of the battle of the budget in Congress. It has never been any different in our history. Ever. The principal reason is that everyone has a different idea of how the Nation should be run and what its core functions are or should be. Political ideology is at the heart of every budget battle. Until relatively recently Congress was able to do two things with success; produce the budget on time and produce a bipartisan agreement on the nature and quantity of spending. Amazingly, surpluses and balanced budgets have been achieved several times in our history. But not with consistency and most assuredly not since Bill Clinton was President. And, of course, no one has discovered a money tree such as the one leading this piece.
Unfortunately the original intent of the Nation’s Founders appears to be irreparably damaged by a fracture in our understanding of their philosophy of governance. Sadly that understanding has been over taken by a bizarre concept of cultural imperative that makes no sense; common or otherwise. It has become virtually impossible for the two sides to agree on whether water is wet let alone how to structure an economy that can lead to a serious decrease in our National debt.
I am not an economist. If you are please weigh in. Nevertheless my wife and I have the responsibility for maintaining our economic life. This is what we know that we have to spend money on:
Our Home.
Spending on our home requires first and foremost that we service our mortgage and provide for the requisite insurance an preventive maintenance via a service contract for our HVAC and Plumbing. It also requires us to ensure that funds for repairs are always available. Then there is discretionary spending for things like landscaping and outdoor furniture, and interior elements like paint and furniture yada, yada, yada. Other than our mortgage we have no other debt.
Our Health.
The older we get the more complex health care becomes. Fortunately we are blessed with good quality insurance that covers about 90% of our cost. Our out of pocket expense are part of our personal medical expenses listed on our Tax return.
Our Maintenance.
Fortunately neither of us is high maintenance so our costs for food, clothing, and travel are relatively small.Our Safety.
While we have provisions for our home safety, we rely on our local fire department and Sherif’s Office to watch over us and to be available as needed. AND we rely on the federal government to provide us with protection from those who would do us harm and to help us recover following natural disasters.
Maintaining the federal government is not quite that simple but there some basic elements that require the careful management of Congress.
Revenue Generation
Spending for core functions
Discretionary spending
Saving for a rainy day
How the two sides of our political spectrum approach budgeting embraces two different theories of governance. One side insists that man is incapable of self governance and, therefore, requires substantial government oversight every citizen’s life while the other demands that individual members of society be self-reliant needing only limited assistance from the federal government. Which means that one side is constantly expanding the role of government and, therefore, spending while the other is sometimes demanding fiscal restraint.
But with $37,000,000,000,000 of national debt Congress is beginning to panic.
Some members of Congress argue that tax cuts necessarily cause a decrease in revenue which leads to an increase in debt. Those same members also believe that all wealth belongs to the government. Some members believe that tax cuts stimulate the economy by allowing people to increase their discretionary spending which in turn results in increased manufacturing, more jobs, and an increased tax base. More importantly it leads to great individual wealth.
Others argue that the budget must be balanced and that the debt must be serviced. The down side of that is the length of time that would be required to eliminate the debt is well beyond the life expectancy of many citizens. But more importantly just balancing the budget doesn’t account for emergency spending for recovery from natural disasters or self defense in the case of war.
I asked Grok how we might resolve $37,000,000,000,000 in debt in five years and in ten years. The bottom line is — you don’t. Debt elimination over five years no matter your approach is mathematically impossible. Debt elimination in ten years is described by Grok as “theoretically possible but economically and socially catastrophic.”
Grok concluded with this:
“Eliminating $37 trillion in 5 years is mathematically unfeasible short of a fantasy scenario (e.g., discovering a $37T resource). Over ten years, it’s theoretically possible but economically and socially catastrophic. A saner approach is gradual deb reduction over decades, balancing fiscal restraint with growth.”
Which brings me to Thomas Massie, (R) KY yet again and his insistence on “No” when it comes to all things budgetary. Thomas supports the 1% solution which requires Congress to reduce the federal budget by 1% every year.
I asked Grok how that might work and here is its answer:
Grok’s Assumptions, Calculation Method, and Conclusion follow:
Calculation Approach
Let’s assume:
Initial budget (spending) = $6.9 trillion in year 1.
Revenues = $6.9 trillion in year 1 (balanced budget initially).
Spending decreases by 1% each year, while revenues stay constant at $6.9 trillion.
The surplus (revenues minus spending) is applied to the debt annually.Interest on the remaining debt (3%) is paid each year, reducing the surplus available for principal repayment.
Conclusion
Simplified (No Interest): Approximately 34 years, assuming the surplus grows linearly and fully applies to the debt.
Realistic (With Interest): Likely hundreds of years, as the small initial surplus cannot offset interest costs without significant adjustments (e.g., higher revenues or deeper cuts).
Given the question’s phrasing, the simplified answer assuming full surplus application is likely intended: It would take approximately 34 years to eliminate the $37 trillion national debt if the budget starts at $6.9 trillion, reduces by 1% annually, and all surpluses pay down the debt without interest complications. In reality, interest and economic factors make this timeline much longer unless drastic measures are taken.
Here is my complaint once again about my Congressman: while his heart may be in the right place his analysis is not. In order for his 1% solution to work there must be no increases in spending for at least 34 years. That means, no hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, ice storms, earthquakes wild fires or military conflicts for 34 years.
For the record when Mr. Massie voted “No” on the latest CR he rejected a 1% cut over last year’s budget that was part of that bill.
On the other hand, President Trump has a plan that he is implementing that will lead to a dramatic increase in revenue while dramatically decreasing spending through DOGE. The net effect is unknown but if he is successful it will far out pace debt reduction of 1%/year.
There is no easy way out of this mess. We can hope that somebody finds the money tree pictured a the top or that the 1% solution works and that we have 34 years of no emergency spending and that Congress behaves. Or we can support the President’s multi-faceted approach and pray that it works well and quickly but that requires the Democrats among others to start acting like adults.
Union, Kentucky
14 March 2025